NEW DELHI - In a direct rebuff to US President Donald Trump’s claims of a tectonic shift in India’s energy policy, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) on Thursday asserted that ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion people remains India’s “supreme priority.” The statement comes 72 hours after the White House announced a "father of all deals" trade pact, coupled with a provocative assertion that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to cease all Russian oil imports.

The diplomatic friction underscores a complex "arbitrage" game where New Delhi is attempting to balance a crucial trade reset with Washington while maintaining its "all-weather" strategic autonomy with Moscow.

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The ‘Trumpian’ Proclamation and New Delhi’s Silence

The controversy erupted following a social media post by President Trump on Monday, where he claimed that as part of a deal to slash reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, New Delhi had agreed to "stop buying Russian oil." Trump framed the move as a major step toward ending the war in Ukraine, suggesting India would pivot toward American and Venezuelan crude.

However, the joint statement expected to solidify these terms has been notably delayed. While Prime Minister Modi thanked the US President for a "wonderful" phone call and the easing of tariffs, he remained pointedly silent on the oil embargo claim.

On Thursday, MEA Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal broke the silence. "Diversifying our energy sourcing in keeping with objective market conditions and evolving international dynamics is at the core of our strategy," Jaiswal told reporters. Crucially, he added that India remains "open to sourcing oil from any place, including Venezuela or Russia," based purely on "commercial viability."

The Moscow Factor: ‘No Official Word’

In Moscow, the Kremlin appeared unfazed by the White House’s rhetoric. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on Wednesday that Russia has "received no official statements from New Delhi" regarding a halt. "India has always purchased these products from other countries... we see nothing new here," Peskov said, signaling that the bilateral energy bridge remains intact for now.

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova went further, emphasizing that the trade is "mutually beneficial" and contributes to global market stability. Analysts suggest Moscow is confident that the sheer economics of discounted Urals crude—currently trading at an $8 discount to Brent - makes it indispensable for Indian refiners.

Economic Compulsions vs. Geopolitical Pressure

The stakes for India are immense. In 2024, Russia supplied nearly 36% of India’s total crude imports, a massive leap from just 2% before the Ukraine conflict began. This "Indian arbitrage"- buying cheap Russian crude and exporting refined products to Europe - has saved the Indian exchequer an estimated $16 billion over three years.

However, the "Trump 2.0" administration has been far more aggressive than its predecessor. Last year, Washington imposed punitive 50% tariffs on Indian goods, citing the "financing of Putin’s war." The current trade deal, which reduces these tariffs, is seen by many in Washington as a quid-pro-quo for an oil exit.

"India is in a squeeze play," says a senior diplomat based in New Delhi. "They want the tariff relief to boost the domestic manufacturing sector, but they cannot afford the inflationary spike that would follow a total abandonment of discounted Russian oil."

The Venezuelan Wildcard

Central to the new narrative is the potential return of Venezuelan oil. Jaiswal’s mention of being "open to Venezuela" is a strategic signal. India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude until US sanctions were reimposed in 2024. If the Trump administration provides specific waivers or facilitates a stable supply from Caracas, it could provide New Delhi with the "commercial merit" needed to gradually scale down Russian volumes without crashing its own economy.

Refiners on High Alert

On the ground, the impact is already visible. Ship-tracking data shows that Indian imports of Russian oil fell to 1.38 million barrels per day in December, the lowest in a year. Reliance Industries has already halted Russian crude at its export-oriented SEZ refinery in Jamnagar to comply with EU secondary sanctions.

Yet, public sector refiners like Indian Oil Corp (IOC) continue to issue tenders for "sour grades" that closely mirror the quality of Russian Urals, suggesting that while the volume may plateau, the "uninterrupted shipments" promised by President Putin during his 2025 visit are not being discarded just yet.

The Road Ahead: Sovereignty or Pragmatism?

Opposition parties, including the Congress and CPI(M), have demanded that the government take Parliament into confidence regarding the "hidden clauses" of the US trade deal. "National interest cannot be bartered for tariff crumbs," a senior opposition leader remarked.

As the "papering" of the India-US deal continues in Washington, New Delhi finds itself at a crossroads. To the West, it must appear as a partner in "ending the war"; to the East, it must remain a reliable, independent sovereign power. For now, the MEA’s "Energy Security First" doctrine remains the official shield against the winds blowing from the Oval Office.

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